feat(BT-001): add synthetic historical backtesting engine

This commit is contained in:
Bu5hm4nn
2026-03-24 16:14:51 +01:00
parent 2161e10626
commit d4dc34d5ab
7 changed files with 729 additions and 0 deletions

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"""Backtesting subsystem for historical hedge simulation."""
from .engine import SyntheticBacktestEngine
__all__ = ["SyntheticBacktestEngine"]

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app/backtesting/engine.py Normal file
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from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
from datetime import date
from app.models.backtest import (
BacktestDailyPoint,
BacktestScenario,
BacktestSummaryMetrics,
TemplateBacktestResult,
)
from app.models.strategy_template import StrategyTemplate, TemplateLeg
from app.services.backtesting.historical_provider import DailyClosePoint, SyntheticHistoricalProvider
@dataclass
class OpenSyntheticPosition:
position_id: str
leg: TemplateLeg
strike: float
expiry: date
quantity: float
class SyntheticBacktestEngine:
def __init__(self, provider: SyntheticHistoricalProvider) -> None:
self.provider = provider
def run_template(
self,
scenario: BacktestScenario,
template: StrategyTemplate,
history: list[DailyClosePoint],
) -> TemplateBacktestResult:
start_day = history[0]
cash_balance = scenario.initial_portfolio.cash_balance
total_hedge_cost = 0.0
total_option_payoff_realized = 0.0
open_positions = self._open_positions(scenario, template, history, start_day)
opening_quotes = [self._mark_position(position, start_day) for position in open_positions]
opening_cost = sum(quote.mark * quote.quantity for quote in opening_quotes)
cash_balance -= opening_cost
total_hedge_cost += opening_cost
daily_points: list[BacktestDailyPoint] = []
for day in history:
premium_cashflow = -opening_cost if day.date == start_day.date else 0.0
realized_option_cashflow = 0.0
option_market_value = 0.0
active_position_ids: list[str] = []
remaining_positions: list[OpenSyntheticPosition] = []
for position in open_positions:
if day.date >= position.expiry:
intrinsic = self.provider.intrinsic_value(
option_type=position.leg.option_type,
spot=day.close,
strike=position.strike,
)
payoff = intrinsic * position.quantity
cash_balance += payoff
realized_option_cashflow += payoff
total_option_payoff_realized += payoff
continue
quote = self._mark_position(position, day)
option_market_value += quote.mark * position.quantity
active_position_ids.append(position.position_id)
remaining_positions.append(position)
open_positions = remaining_positions
underlying_value = scenario.initial_portfolio.underlying_units * day.close
net_portfolio_value = underlying_value + option_market_value + cash_balance
ltv_unhedged = scenario.initial_portfolio.loan_amount / underlying_value
ltv_hedged = scenario.initial_portfolio.loan_amount / net_portfolio_value
daily_points.append(
BacktestDailyPoint(
date=day.date,
spot_close=day.close,
underlying_value=underlying_value,
option_market_value=option_market_value,
premium_cashflow=premium_cashflow,
realized_option_cashflow=realized_option_cashflow,
net_portfolio_value=net_portfolio_value,
loan_amount=scenario.initial_portfolio.loan_amount,
ltv_unhedged=ltv_unhedged,
ltv_hedged=ltv_hedged,
margin_call_unhedged=ltv_unhedged >= scenario.initial_portfolio.margin_call_ltv,
margin_call_hedged=ltv_hedged >= scenario.initial_portfolio.margin_call_ltv,
active_position_ids=tuple(active_position_ids),
)
)
summary = BacktestSummaryMetrics(
start_value=scenario.initial_portfolio.start_value,
end_value_unhedged=daily_points[-1].underlying_value,
end_value_hedged_net=daily_points[-1].net_portfolio_value,
total_hedge_cost=total_hedge_cost,
total_option_payoff_realized=total_option_payoff_realized,
max_ltv_unhedged=max(point.ltv_unhedged for point in daily_points),
max_ltv_hedged=max(point.ltv_hedged for point in daily_points),
margin_threshold_breached_unhedged=any(point.margin_call_unhedged for point in daily_points),
margin_threshold_breached_hedged=any(point.margin_call_hedged for point in daily_points),
)
return TemplateBacktestResult(
template_slug=template.slug,
template_id=template.template_id,
template_version=template.version,
template_name=template.display_name,
summary_metrics=summary,
daily_path=tuple(daily_points),
)
def _open_positions(
self,
scenario: BacktestScenario,
template: StrategyTemplate,
history: list[DailyClosePoint],
start_day: DailyClosePoint,
) -> list[OpenSyntheticPosition]:
positions: list[OpenSyntheticPosition] = []
for index, leg in enumerate(template.legs, start=1):
expiry = self.provider.resolve_expiry(history, start_day.date, leg.target_expiry_days)
positions.append(
OpenSyntheticPosition(
position_id=f"{template.slug}-position-{index}",
leg=leg,
strike=start_day.close * leg.strike_rule.value,
expiry=expiry,
quantity=scenario.initial_portfolio.underlying_units
* leg.allocation_weight
* leg.target_coverage_pct,
)
)
return positions
def _mark_position(self, position: OpenSyntheticPosition, day: DailyClosePoint):
return self.provider.price_option(
position_id=position.position_id,
leg=position.leg,
spot=day.close,
strike=position.strike,
expiry=position.expiry,
quantity=position.quantity,
valuation_date=day.date,
)

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from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from datetime import date
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class BacktestPortfolioState:
currency: str
underlying_units: float
entry_spot: float
loan_amount: float
margin_call_ltv: float
cash_balance: float = 0.0
financing_rate: float = 0.0
def __post_init__(self) -> None:
if self.currency.upper() != "USD":
raise ValueError("USD is the only supported currency in the MVP")
if self.underlying_units <= 0:
raise ValueError("underlying_units must be positive")
if self.entry_spot <= 0:
raise ValueError("entry_spot must be positive")
if self.loan_amount < 0:
raise ValueError("loan_amount must be non-negative")
if not 0 < self.margin_call_ltv < 1:
raise ValueError("margin_call_ltv must be between 0 and 1")
if self.loan_amount >= self.underlying_units * self.entry_spot:
raise ValueError("loan_amount must be less than initial collateral value")
@property
def start_value(self) -> float:
return self.underlying_units * self.entry_spot
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class TemplateRef:
slug: str
version: int
def __post_init__(self) -> None:
if not self.slug:
raise ValueError("template slug is required")
if self.version <= 0:
raise ValueError("template version must be positive")
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class ProviderRef:
provider_id: str
pricing_mode: str
def __post_init__(self) -> None:
if not self.provider_id:
raise ValueError("provider_id is required")
if not self.pricing_mode:
raise ValueError("pricing_mode is required")
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class BacktestScenario:
scenario_id: str
display_name: str
symbol: str
start_date: date
end_date: date
initial_portfolio: BacktestPortfolioState
template_refs: tuple[TemplateRef, ...]
provider_ref: ProviderRef
def __post_init__(self) -> None:
if not self.scenario_id:
raise ValueError("scenario_id is required")
if not self.display_name:
raise ValueError("display_name is required")
if not self.symbol:
raise ValueError("symbol is required")
if self.start_date > self.end_date:
raise ValueError("start_date must be on or before end_date")
if not self.template_refs:
raise ValueError("at least one template ref is required")
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class BacktestDailyPoint:
date: date
spot_close: float
underlying_value: float
option_market_value: float
premium_cashflow: float
realized_option_cashflow: float
net_portfolio_value: float
loan_amount: float
ltv_unhedged: float
ltv_hedged: float
margin_call_unhedged: bool
margin_call_hedged: bool
active_position_ids: tuple[str, ...] = field(default_factory=tuple)
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class BacktestSummaryMetrics:
start_value: float
end_value_unhedged: float
end_value_hedged_net: float
total_hedge_cost: float
total_option_payoff_realized: float
max_ltv_unhedged: float
max_ltv_hedged: float
margin_threshold_breached_unhedged: bool
margin_threshold_breached_hedged: bool
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class TemplateBacktestResult:
template_slug: str
template_id: str
template_version: int
template_name: str
summary_metrics: BacktestSummaryMetrics
daily_path: tuple[BacktestDailyPoint, ...]
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class BacktestRunResult:
scenario_id: str
template_results: tuple[TemplateBacktestResult, ...]

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"""Backtesting services and historical market-data adapters."""
from .historical_provider import SyntheticHistoricalProvider, YFinanceHistoricalPriceSource
from .service import BacktestService
__all__ = ["BacktestService", "SyntheticHistoricalProvider", "YFinanceHistoricalPriceSource"]

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from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
from datetime import date, timedelta
from typing import Protocol
from app.models.backtest import ProviderRef
try:
import yfinance as yf
except ImportError: # pragma: no cover - optional in tests
yf = None
from app.core.pricing.black_scholes import BlackScholesInputs, black_scholes_price_and_greeks
from app.models.strategy_template import TemplateLeg
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class DailyClosePoint:
date: date
close: float
def __post_init__(self) -> None:
if self.close <= 0:
raise ValueError("close must be positive")
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class SyntheticOptionQuote:
position_id: str
leg_id: str
spot: float
strike: float
expiry: date
quantity: float
mark: float
class HistoricalPriceSource(Protocol):
def load_daily_closes(self, symbol: str, start_date: date, end_date: date) -> list[DailyClosePoint]:
raise NotImplementedError
class YFinanceHistoricalPriceSource:
def load_daily_closes(self, symbol: str, start_date: date, end_date: date) -> list[DailyClosePoint]:
if yf is None:
raise RuntimeError("yfinance is required to load historical backtest prices")
ticker = yf.Ticker(symbol)
inclusive_end_date = end_date + timedelta(days=1)
history = ticker.history(start=start_date.isoformat(), end=inclusive_end_date.isoformat(), interval="1d")
rows: list[DailyClosePoint] = []
for index, row in history.iterrows():
close = row.get("Close")
if close is None:
continue
rows.append(DailyClosePoint(date=index.date(), close=float(close)))
return rows
class SyntheticHistoricalProvider:
provider_id = "synthetic_v1"
pricing_mode = "synthetic_bs_mid"
def __init__(
self,
source: HistoricalPriceSource | None = None,
implied_volatility: float = 0.16,
risk_free_rate: float = 0.045,
) -> None:
if implied_volatility <= 0:
raise ValueError("implied_volatility must be positive")
self.source = source or YFinanceHistoricalPriceSource()
self.implied_volatility = implied_volatility
self.risk_free_rate = risk_free_rate
def load_history(self, symbol: str, start_date: date, end_date: date) -> list[DailyClosePoint]:
rows = self.source.load_daily_closes(symbol, start_date, end_date)
filtered = [row for row in rows if start_date <= row.date <= end_date]
return sorted(filtered, key=lambda row: row.date)
def validate_provider_ref(self, provider_ref: ProviderRef) -> None:
if provider_ref.provider_id != self.provider_id or provider_ref.pricing_mode != self.pricing_mode:
raise ValueError(
"Unsupported provider/pricing combination for synthetic MVP engine: "
f"{provider_ref.provider_id}/{provider_ref.pricing_mode}"
)
def resolve_expiry(self, trading_days: list[DailyClosePoint], as_of_date: date, target_expiry_days: int) -> date:
target_date = date.fromordinal(as_of_date.toordinal() + target_expiry_days)
for day in trading_days:
if day.date >= target_date:
return day.date
return target_date
def price_option(
self,
*,
position_id: str,
leg: TemplateLeg,
spot: float,
strike: float,
expiry: date,
quantity: float,
valuation_date: date,
) -> SyntheticOptionQuote:
remaining_days = max(1, expiry.toordinal() - valuation_date.toordinal())
mark = black_scholes_price_and_greeks(
BlackScholesInputs(
spot=spot,
strike=strike,
time_to_expiry=remaining_days / 365.0,
risk_free_rate=self.risk_free_rate,
volatility=self.implied_volatility,
option_type=leg.option_type,
valuation_date=valuation_date,
)
).price
return SyntheticOptionQuote(
position_id=position_id,
leg_id=leg.leg_id,
spot=spot,
strike=strike,
expiry=expiry,
quantity=quantity,
mark=mark,
)
@staticmethod
def intrinsic_value(*, option_type: str, spot: float, strike: float) -> float:
if option_type == "put":
return max(strike - spot, 0.0)
if option_type == "call":
return max(spot - strike, 0.0)
raise ValueError(f"Unsupported option type: {option_type}")

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from __future__ import annotations
from math import isclose
from app.backtesting.engine import SyntheticBacktestEngine
from app.models.backtest import BacktestRunResult, BacktestScenario
from app.models.strategy_template import StrategyTemplate
from app.services.backtesting.historical_provider import SyntheticHistoricalProvider
from app.services.strategy_templates import StrategyTemplateService
class BacktestService:
ENTRY_SPOT_ABS_TOLERANCE = 0.01
ENTRY_SPOT_REL_TOLERANCE = 1e-6
def __init__(
self,
provider: SyntheticHistoricalProvider | None = None,
template_service: StrategyTemplateService | None = None,
) -> None:
self.provider = provider or SyntheticHistoricalProvider()
self.template_service = template_service or StrategyTemplateService()
self.engine = SyntheticBacktestEngine(self.provider)
def run_scenario(self, scenario: BacktestScenario) -> BacktestRunResult:
self.provider.validate_provider_ref(scenario.provider_ref)
scenario_symbol = scenario.symbol.strip().upper()
history = self.provider.load_history(scenario_symbol, scenario.start_date, scenario.end_date)
if not history:
raise ValueError("No historical prices found for scenario window")
if history[0].date != scenario.start_date:
raise ValueError(
"Scenario start_date must match the first available historical price point for "
"entry_timing='scenario_start_close'"
)
if not isclose(
scenario.initial_portfolio.entry_spot,
history[0].close,
rel_tol=self.ENTRY_SPOT_REL_TOLERANCE,
abs_tol=self.ENTRY_SPOT_ABS_TOLERANCE,
):
raise ValueError(
"initial_portfolio.entry_spot must match the first historical close used for entry "
"when entry_timing='scenario_start_close'"
)
template_results = []
for template_ref in scenario.template_refs:
template = self.template_service.get_template(template_ref.slug)
if template.version != template_ref.version:
raise ValueError(
f"Template version mismatch for {template_ref.slug}: expected {template_ref.version}, got {template.version}"
)
template_symbol = template.underlying_symbol.strip().upper()
if template_symbol not in {scenario_symbol, "*"}:
raise ValueError(f"Template {template.slug} does not support symbol {scenario_symbol}")
self._validate_template_for_mvp(template)
template_results.append(self.engine.run_template(scenario, template, history))
return BacktestRunResult(scenario_id=scenario.scenario_id, template_results=tuple(template_results))
@staticmethod
def _validate_template_for_mvp(template: StrategyTemplate) -> None:
if template.contract_mode != "continuous_units":
raise ValueError(f"Unsupported contract_mode for synthetic MVP engine: {template.contract_mode}")
if template.roll_policy.policy_type != "hold_to_expiry":
raise ValueError("Unsupported roll_policy for synthetic MVP engine: " f"{template.roll_policy.policy_type}")
if template.entry_policy.entry_timing != "scenario_start_close":
raise ValueError(
"Unsupported entry_timing for synthetic MVP engine: " f"{template.entry_policy.entry_timing}"
)
if template.entry_policy.stagger_days is not None:
raise ValueError("Unsupported entry_policy configuration for synthetic MVP engine")

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from __future__ import annotations
from datetime import date
import pandas as pd
import pytest
from app.models.backtest import BacktestPortfolioState, BacktestScenario, ProviderRef, TemplateRef
from app.models.strategy_template import EntryPolicy, RollPolicy, StrategyTemplate
from app.services.backtesting.historical_provider import (
DailyClosePoint,
SyntheticHistoricalProvider,
YFinanceHistoricalPriceSource,
)
from app.services.backtesting.service import BacktestService
from app.services.strategy_templates import StrategyTemplateService
class FakeHistorySource:
def __init__(self, rows: list[DailyClosePoint]) -> None:
self.rows = rows
self.calls: list[tuple[str, date, date]] = []
def load_daily_closes(self, symbol: str, start_date: date, end_date: date) -> list[DailyClosePoint]:
self.calls.append((symbol, start_date, end_date))
return list(self.rows)
FIXTURE_HISTORY = [
DailyClosePoint(date=date(2024, 1, 8), close=85.0),
DailyClosePoint(date=date(2024, 1, 2), close=100.0),
DailyClosePoint(date=date(2024, 1, 3), close=96.0),
DailyClosePoint(date=date(2024, 1, 4), close=92.0),
DailyClosePoint(date=date(2024, 1, 5), close=88.0),
]
def test_synthetic_historical_provider_sorts_and_filters_daily_closes() -> None:
source = FakeHistorySource(FIXTURE_HISTORY)
provider = SyntheticHistoricalProvider(source=source, implied_volatility=0.35, risk_free_rate=0.01)
series = provider.load_history(symbol="GLD", start_date=date(2024, 1, 3), end_date=date(2024, 1, 5))
assert [(point.date.isoformat(), point.close) for point in series] == [
("2024-01-03", 96.0),
("2024-01-04", 92.0),
("2024-01-05", 88.0),
]
assert source.calls == [("GLD", date(2024, 1, 3), date(2024, 1, 5))]
def _build_scenario(
*,
provider_ref: ProviderRef | None = None,
symbol: str = "GLD",
entry_spot: float = 100.0,
) -> BacktestScenario:
return BacktestScenario(
scenario_id="gld-selloff-1",
display_name="GLD selloff",
symbol=symbol,
start_date=date(2024, 1, 2),
end_date=date(2024, 1, 8),
initial_portfolio=BacktestPortfolioState(
currency="USD",
underlying_units=1000.0,
entry_spot=entry_spot,
loan_amount=68_000.0,
margin_call_ltv=0.75,
),
template_refs=(TemplateRef(slug="protective-put-atm-12m", version=1),),
provider_ref=provider_ref or ProviderRef(provider_id="synthetic_v1", pricing_mode="synthetic_bs_mid"),
)
def test_backtest_service_runs_template_backtest_with_daily_points() -> None:
source = FakeHistorySource(FIXTURE_HISTORY)
provider = SyntheticHistoricalProvider(source=source, implied_volatility=0.35, risk_free_rate=0.0)
service = BacktestService(provider=provider, template_service=StrategyTemplateService())
result = service.run_scenario(_build_scenario())
assert result.scenario_id == "gld-selloff-1"
assert len(result.template_results) == 1
template_result = result.template_results[0]
summary = template_result.summary_metrics
assert summary.start_value == 100_000.0
assert summary.end_value_unhedged == 85_000.0
assert summary.end_value_hedged_net > summary.end_value_unhedged
assert summary.total_hedge_cost > 0.0
assert summary.max_ltv_hedged < summary.max_ltv_unhedged
assert summary.margin_threshold_breached_unhedged is True
assert summary.margin_threshold_breached_hedged is False
assert [point.date.isoformat() for point in template_result.daily_path] == [
"2024-01-02",
"2024-01-03",
"2024-01-04",
"2024-01-05",
"2024-01-08",
]
assert template_result.daily_path[0].premium_cashflow < 0.0
assert template_result.daily_path[-1].margin_call_unhedged is True
assert template_result.daily_path[-1].margin_call_hedged is False
def test_backtest_keeps_long_dated_option_open_past_scenario_end() -> None:
source = FakeHistorySource(FIXTURE_HISTORY)
provider = SyntheticHistoricalProvider(source=source, implied_volatility=0.35, risk_free_rate=0.0)
service = BacktestService(provider=provider, template_service=StrategyTemplateService())
result = service.run_scenario(_build_scenario())
template_result = result.template_results[0]
final_day = template_result.daily_path[-1]
assert final_day.date == date(2024, 1, 8)
assert final_day.realized_option_cashflow == 0.0
assert final_day.option_market_value > 0.0
assert final_day.active_position_ids == ("protective-put-atm-12m-position-1",)
assert template_result.summary_metrics.total_option_payoff_realized == 0.0
def test_backtest_rejects_unsupported_provider_pricing_combination() -> None:
source = FakeHistorySource(FIXTURE_HISTORY)
provider = SyntheticHistoricalProvider(source=source, implied_volatility=0.35, risk_free_rate=0.0)
service = BacktestService(provider=provider, template_service=StrategyTemplateService())
scenario = _build_scenario(provider_ref=ProviderRef(provider_id="daily_snapshots_v1", pricing_mode="snapshot_mid"))
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="Unsupported provider/pricing combination"):
service.run_scenario(scenario)
def test_backtest_rejects_scenario_start_close_when_history_starts_after_scenario_start() -> None:
delayed_history = [row for row in FIXTURE_HISTORY if row.date >= date(2024, 1, 3)]
source = FakeHistorySource(delayed_history)
provider = SyntheticHistoricalProvider(source=source, implied_volatility=0.35, risk_free_rate=0.0)
service = BacktestService(provider=provider, template_service=StrategyTemplateService())
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="Scenario start_date must match the first available historical price point"):
service.run_scenario(_build_scenario())
def test_backtest_rejects_mismatched_entry_spot_for_scenario_start_close() -> None:
source = FakeHistorySource(FIXTURE_HISTORY)
provider = SyntheticHistoricalProvider(source=source, implied_volatility=0.35, risk_free_rate=0.0)
service = BacktestService(provider=provider, template_service=StrategyTemplateService())
with pytest.raises(
ValueError,
match="initial_portfolio.entry_spot must match the first historical close used for entry",
):
service.run_scenario(_build_scenario(entry_spot=100.02))
@pytest.mark.parametrize(
("field", "value", "message"),
[
("contract_mode", "listed_contracts", "Unsupported contract_mode"),
(
"roll_policy",
RollPolicy(policy_type="roll_n_days_before_expiry", days_before_expiry=5),
"Unsupported roll_policy",
),
("entry_policy", EntryPolicy(entry_timing="scenario_start_close", stagger_days=1), None),
],
)
def test_backtest_rejects_unsupported_template_behaviors(field: str, value: object, message: str | None) -> None:
source = FakeHistorySource(FIXTURE_HISTORY)
provider = SyntheticHistoricalProvider(source=source, implied_volatility=0.35, risk_free_rate=0.0)
template_service = StrategyTemplateService()
service = BacktestService(provider=provider, template_service=template_service)
template = template_service.get_template("protective-put-atm-12m")
template_kwargs = {
"template_id": template.template_id,
"slug": template.slug,
"display_name": template.display_name,
"description": template.description,
"template_kind": template.template_kind,
"status": template.status,
"version": template.version,
"underlying_symbol": template.underlying_symbol,
"contract_mode": template.contract_mode,
"legs": template.legs,
"roll_policy": template.roll_policy,
"entry_policy": template.entry_policy,
"tags": template.tags,
"created_at": template.created_at,
"updated_at": template.updated_at,
}
template_kwargs[field] = value
unsupported_template = StrategyTemplate(**template_kwargs)
if field == "entry_policy":
unsupported_template = StrategyTemplate(
**{
**template_kwargs,
"entry_policy": EntryPolicy(entry_timing="scenario_start_close", stagger_days=1),
}
)
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="Unsupported entry_policy configuration"):
service._validate_template_for_mvp(unsupported_template)
return
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match=message or "Unsupported"):
service._validate_template_for_mvp(unsupported_template)
def test_yfinance_price_source_treats_end_date_inclusively(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
calls: list[tuple[str, str, str]] = []
class FakeTicker:
def __init__(self, symbol: str) -> None:
self.symbol = symbol
def history(self, start: str, end: str, interval: str):
calls.append((start, end, interval))
return pd.DataFrame(
{"Close": [100.0, 101.0]},
index=pd.to_datetime(["2024-01-04", "2024-01-05"]),
)
class FakeYFinance:
Ticker = FakeTicker
monkeypatch.setattr("app.services.backtesting.historical_provider.yf", FakeYFinance())
source = YFinanceHistoricalPriceSource()
rows = source.load_daily_closes(symbol="GLD", start_date=date(2024, 1, 4), end_date=date(2024, 1, 5))
assert calls == [("2024-01-04", "2024-01-06", "1d")]
assert [(row.date.isoformat(), row.close) for row in rows] == [
("2024-01-04", 100.0),
("2024-01-05", 101.0),
]